ZIF Expert Dialogue on Türkiye's ambivalent role in unresolved conflicts in the wider Black Sea region

As part of a series on unresolved conflicts in the wider Black Sea region, ZIF organized the 4th expert dialogue on the role of Türkiye. The event aimed to shed light on factors and their consequences of the balance of power and the management of unresolved conflicts in the wider Black Sea region. A total of 20 people took part in the event at ZIF, including representatives from the Federal Foreign Office, foundations and think tanks.

One of the central questions was what influence the Turkish approach of deterrence towards and simultaneous dialog with Russia could have on the unresolved conflicts in the wider Black Sea region. The domestic political interests and economic factors that shape Turkish foreign policy in the region were also discussed. The debate also focused on the opportunities and challenges for Germany, the EU and NATO to strengthen synergies with Türkiye's Black Sea policy - particularly with regard to the further course of the war of aggression against Ukraine.

Background:

Since the start of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, Türkiye's role in the wider Black Sea region has been under closer scrutiny. The government in Ankara is attempting to balance its interests: like Russia, Türkiye views the Black Sea region as a key area of influence with important security issues and significant energy resources. At the same time, Türkiye's relationship with both Russia and NATO is complex. Türkiye's foreign policy course remains unique and is not fully in line with that of its allies. However, the Turkish government does not question the fact that its security policy is closely linked to NATO, while at the same time maintaining a close relationship with Russia.

In addition, Türkiye plays a mediating role in the entire region due to the special position assigned to it by the Montreux Treaty. For example, Türkiye played a decisive role in the internationally brokered grain deal.