Mozambique

Mozambique is bracing for the results of the October 9 election, which must be released by Friday. Many observers expect the government candidate to be declared the winner, with the opposition reporting electoral fraud.

Frelimo has ruled the southern African country since the end of Portuguese colonial rule in 1975. For the first time, it is fielding a presidential candidate born after independence, Daniel Chapo, a provincial governor who was relatively unknown until being picked in May as the candidate to succeed the outgoing president, Filipe Nyusi. 

Mozambicans will vote in presidential and legislative elections on Oct. 9 that are almost certain to extend the ruling Frelimo party's half century in power, as it battles a long-running Islamist insurgency in one of Africa's largest gas fields.

[…] As from 1 September, EUTM is no more, replaced by EUMAM (EU Military Assistance Mission in Mozambique). … EUMAM Mozambique aims to provide comprehensive military training and advisory support to the FADM.

Mozambique has begun a 45-day election campaign to choose the next president, with four hopefuls looking to succeed President Filipe Nyusi. He will step down in January at the end of his second five-year term. More than 17 million registered voters will choose the country’s new head of state and 250 members of parliament in the October 9 election.

In response to an invitation by the National Election Commission of Mozambique, the European Union has decided to deploy an Election Observation Mission (EOM) to observe the general elections in Mozambique on 9 October. The High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell has appointed Laura Ballarin Cereza, Member of the European Parliament, as Chief Observer.

Since the announcement of the withdrawal of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) from Cabo Delgado province, there have been various criticisms about the effectiveness and drawdown of intervention. … However, what the critics miss is hidden in plain sight – the conduct of host country Mozambique. 

Since deploying in 2021, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) has helped reduce the presence of Islamic State-affiliated terrorists in the Cabo Delgado province from several thousand to a few hundred. However, the upcoming end of SAMIM on 15 July has some observers concerned about a revival of terrorism in the region. 

SAMIM’s withdrawal (to be completed by mid-July) has allowed the insurgency to regain momentum and some territorial dominance and operational presence in parts of the Macomia and Quissanga districts. This provides a springboard for attacks further afield, especially in the central and southern districts. 

Rwanda is deploying an additional 2,500 soldiers to help Mozambique fight resurgent attacks by Islamic State insurgents in the oil-rich Cabo Delgado province. Attacks have been on the rise in the area as a force known as SAMIM, deployed by the Southern African Development Community, prepares to withdraw.