Ukraine

Wednesday morning's incursion of Russian drones into Polish airspace led to jets being scrambled, an emergency government meeting being called - and concerns that Europe and Nato's resolve against Moscow may not be up to the test. … Russia has pushed back against accusations that the incursion was deliberate – though it also stopped short of denying its drones had trespassed sovereign Polish airspace.

The figure comes after President Volodymyr Zelensky’s announcement last January that Russia sustained a numerical advantage in some front-line areas, with about 600,000 troops in Ukraine at the time, despite Ukraine’s own force of roughly 900,000 nationwide. 

Even though there still isn’t any concrete “American backstop” which the European countries are seeking for the reassurance force to go ahead, they note the US both politically and militarily have indicated that it may be in the making. In what shape or form still remains to be seen, but it is believed that the most useful asset would be American Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR), most likely from NATO eastern flank countries such as Poland and Romania.

French President Emmanuel Macron announced that 26 countries have pledged post-war military support to Ukraine after any ceasefire deal with Russia. Macron said the planned deployments aim to ensure security, not provoke conflict. With US backing expected to be finalised soon, Ukraine's President Zelensky called the move a major step forward.

The EU summoned Moscow's envoy in Brussels on Thursday after a massive attack on Kyiv killed at least 14 people and damaged the bloc's diplomatic mission in the city.

US President Donald Trump again played down the likelihood of a quick meeting of the Russian and Ukrainian leaders and raised the possibility of new sanctions on Moscow, although he also said the Ukrainian side is not without blame.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called on Canada to send troops to Ukraine to reinforce European security guarantees, a move the North American country is still considering.

Ukraine's access to Elon Musk's satellite internet service Starlink could be cut due to the Polish president's veto of a refugee aid bill, a Polish deputy prime minister said on Monday, as a conflict between the government and head of state deepens.

As NATO defence ministers met during a virtual get-together, Russia said it had to be part of any discussion on security guarantees for Ukraine and downplayed the likelihood of an imminent summit with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, tempering hopes for a quick peace deal.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Thursday the presence of European troops in Ukraine would be "absolutely unacceptable" to Russia while Kyiv and its allies push to establish security guarantees to end the war. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said Thursday that such guarantees were a prerequisite before meeting with Russia's Vladimir Putin.