AU Monitoring, Verification and Compliance Mission

The threat of war is looming over the Horn of Africa once again, with observers warning of a return to fighting in Tigray, which could also lead to conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. 

More than two years after a cessation of hostilities ended a brutal civil war, Ethiopia’s Tigray region should be well along the road to recovery. Instead, its ruling Tigray People’s Liberation Front Party (TPLF) is embroiled in a bitter internal spat that has paralysed politics and sparked fears of fresh conflict. 

The leaders of Ethiopia’s Tigray region have called for the full implementation of the Pretoria agreement that ended the conflict between Ethiopia's federal government and the Tigray rebels in 2022.

[…] Some critical lessons learned include African ownership of the mediated process, strategic interactions, and the management of confidentiality, given the tremen-dous interest from the continent and the diaspora. 

Ethiopian army forces have deployed in large numbers in the past fortnight to Amhara state, the scene of a year-long insurgency … The Fano, a long-standing “self-defence” militia for the Amhara ethnic group, the second largest in Ethiopia, took up arms against the federal government in April 2023 after it tried to disarm regional forces.

The leader of Tigray People's Liberation Front Debretsion Gebremichael has reported previously undisclosed talks between his region and the leaders of Eritrea. Speaking at a press conference in the regional capital Mekelle, Ethiopia, on Tuesday, Debretsion said the first round of talks took place about six months ago in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

The UN-backed $3.24 billion humanitarian response plan for 2024 is only five per cent funded. Organised by the UN along with the Governments of Ethiopia and the United Kingdom, the conference aims to hear commitments that will enhance life-saving aid to approximately 15.5 million people in 2024. An immediate funding of $1 billion is required to sustain aid delivery for the next five months. 

Ethiopian government forces battled militiamen on Friday in the capital of the Amhara region, Bahir Dar, the regional administration and residents said, in the first fighting there since the early days of the conflict last year.

Continuing conflict in Amhara region threatens stability beyond Ethiopia’s borders should decisive action not be taken. … The [African Union] Peace and Security Council (PSC) should view the Amhara crisis as more than a local security challenge in one of its member states. Based on its mantra of African solutions to African problems, it should activate early involvement of continental actors since the conflict has the potential for regional implications.

The negotiations in Tanzania followed talks in April and May that also failed to produce an agreement.